According to DNV, the world has squandered an opportunity to turn the worldwide coronavirus epidemic into a chance to drive the energy transition since Covid-19 recovery programs are focused on protecting existing businesses rather than altering them. According to a new energy transition projection from Norway’s DNV, even if all electricity were to be “green” from now on, the globe would still fall well short of the COP21 Paris Agreement’s 2050 net-zero-emissions goals.
DNV will release its yearly Energy Transition Outlook on September 1st, which is currently in its fifth year and will be released 2 months before COP26 in Glasgow. The outlook gives an unbiased forecast of global energy system trends until 2050. Within a generation, electrification might double, and renewables are now the most cost-effective source of new energy. However, according to DNV, global emissions will only decrease by 9% by the year 2030, with a 1.5 degree Celsius carbon budget negotiated upon by major economies having been depleted by that time.
“We’ve seen governments worldwide take unprecedented steps to control the impacts of the pandemic and drive a recovery,” DNV CEO Remi Eriksen said. However, I am genuinely concerned about what it will require for countries to apply the same level of resolve and urgency to our climate as they did in the face of the epidemic. To avoid a climate disaster, we must now observe the same feeling of urgency. Most of those pandemic recovery plans have prioritised protecting current sectors over altering them. There has been a lot of ‘building back’ rather than ‘building better,’ and while this is a missed chance, it is not the final chance we have to transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system.”
Energy efficiency, according to DNV, remains the greatest possibility for combating climate change as the globe moves further away from the Paris Agreement. The most important lever for the shift is to achieve major progress in this key area — improved efficiency is the cause why worldwide energy demand will level off while the world’s population and economy rise, according to DNV.
Reductions in the use of fossil fuels have been “remarkably” rapid. However, these sources, particularly gas, will still account for 50% of global energy by 2050, emphasizing the need to invest in and scale up hydrogen and carbon collection and storage.
By mid-century, oil demand is expected to have halved, with coal use decreased by a third. While wind and solar will generate 69 percent of grid-connected power in 2050, and the indirect electrification (e-fuels and hydrogen) and biofuels will remain critical, none of these sources is expanding quickly enough, according to the ETO 2021.